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Jan. 6, 2010

China said earlier today that it is getting ready for a wireless data services bonanza, according to research firm iSuppli which predicts the country’s revenues already have increased almost 20 percent last year, and are expected to more than double in 2010, 2011, 2012 and well into 2013.

iSuppli added that it expects that overall data revenue in China from both messaging and non-messaging services will rise from $19.3 billion in 2009 and to $31.5 billion by 2010.

The research firm says there's no question that many Chinese wireless service providers will do well over the next 3 to 4 years.

Overall, non-messaging mobile revenues are predicted to exceed messaging revenue as wireless carriers expand mainstream adoption of 3G and 4G services, with iSuppli forecasting non-messaging service revenue will grow from $6.8 billion in 2009 to slightly over $20 billion in 2013.

As for mobile service carriers competing in that segment, iSuppli added that it expects China Mobile will begin to see its subscriber growth rate decline a bit as China Telecom and China Unicom place more competitive pressure on China Mobile, especially in non-messaging services, by leveraging their mobile network and handset advantages.

China Mobile is currently the world’s largest wireless carrier with more than 500 million customers.

“The rapid growth of China’s data and mobile services is being enhanced by the monumental spending of the nation’s mobile carriers on wireless infrastructure equipment,” said Will Kong, an analyst covering China research at iSuppli.

Kong added that “in 2010, Chinese wireless carriers will spend over $6.28 billion on mobile infrastructure equipment, up 28 percent from 2009's levels. This will represent a near-term peak, with spending this year dropping by about 2.4 percent to $6.1 billion."

"During the next five years, mobile carrier spending in China will continue to decline but will remain at a high level of more than $5.5 billion annually,” said Kong.

iSuppli also added that it expects China Telecom’s mobile subscriber base to exceed 100 million customers and China Unicom’s to surpass 200 million customers in 2013, but that China Mobile’s incremental market share will be stable at around 60 percent for the next few years.

Not all wireless industry analysts share iSuppli's enthusiasm, however. Some think these numbers are a bit optimistic and that it's still a bit too early to tell at this point in time.

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Source: iSuppli.