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January 23, 2012

According to new numbers published by research firm Ovum, Android is poised as the OS of choice for many developers, but still, almost all mobile app developers will support iOS as well as Android, nevertheless. sGoogle's Android platform will become the preeminent platform for developers over the next twelve months. Ovum's call comes as Android continues to bring in more market share as more and more companies use the platform to crank out a whole slew of new mobile devices.

While iOS has seen its market share growth slow a bit in the recent years, it has always been seen as a more lucrative location for app developers to make money. As a result, most apps came to iOS first, and the other platforms second, Android being no exception to this.

But this could all change in the coming months, Ovum said. Android's prevalence is getting harder and harder to ignore, and app developers have incorporated new business models such as advertising and in-app purchases to spruce up revenue.

Ovum also said that there is growing developer interest in Windows Phone and BlackBerry OS. The results come as both Microsoft and Research in Motion attempt to lure developers over to their respective camps, for what it's worth that is.

"The growing momentum behind Windows Phone indicates that Microsoft has managed to convince developers that its platform is worthy of investment. Its main challenge right now is to persuade consumers," said Ovum analyst Adam Leach.

The Ovum research also reveals that app developers are abandoning mobile-centric app development tools such as Java, Flash and WAP, and moving to HTML 5, a Web-based standard that can run across multiple devices and platforms.

In other mobile news

For the past year now, Apple has been the exclusive adopter of an interface technology called Thunderbolt, and it's the sole reason why its displays are different and do look better than the ones from its competitors.

Developed by Intel, Thunderbolt is now used on Apple's Mac computers, the iPod, the iPhone and now the iPad. While it's still unclear whether Thunderbolt will catch on in a big way, the fact that Apple has first-adopter status is one reason other device makers are taking a serious look at the technology. Recent reports are suggesting that Acer, Asus and now Lenovo are moving to adopt Thunderbolt. And many more are expected to follow suit, notably Samsung and Motorola.

But Apple's standard-setter status is particularly conspicuous in display technology, according to Richard Shim, an analyst at DisplaySearch. He points out to the probable adoption by Apple of Sharp's IGZO (Indium Gallium Zinc Oxide) technology in its future iPads.

"And for Sharp, IGZO is a big deal," said Shim, in a phone interview this week. If Sharp can make those displays in commercial volumes for Apple, IGZO may become an industry standard for the next-generation of displays, not to mention a licensing bonanza for Sharp.

IGZO's potential benefits include improved brightness at lower power consumption levels for very-high-resolution displays, according to Shim. That would, of course, include the rumored 2,048-by-1,536-pixel screen on the iPad 3.

Whether Sharp is able to supply the IGZO display at volumes that Apple needs for its upcoming spring iPad update is still uncertain at this time. But one thing is sure-- Apple has invested significant sums of money in Sharp's manufacturing facilities. So will Apple adopt it later rather than sooner?

"Sharp is the only one that can make those IGZO displays," said Shim. And how would this technology cascade into mass-market adoption? A couple of recent examples may provide some guidance.

"IPS was marginal for a long time, and largely ignored until Apple said it was important," added Shim, referring to In-Plane Switching technology, now trumpeted by virtually every display supplier because of the viewing angles it provides.

"All of a sudden, a moribund technology became important in the market," he said. As was so often the case with Apple, the late Steve Jobs was the proselytizer-in-chief. "IPS was really ignored in the notebook market and was written off until Jobs started talking about it on stage," according to Shim.

But nevertheless, that's not to say that IPS display technology was unknown in professional display circles before Steve Jobs touted its virtues.

And the same can be said of Corning's Gorilla Glass technology. "Gorilla Glass was not a big deal. In fact Corning didn't even know what to do with it when it invented the technology back in the mid-sixties. Then Jobs called up Wendell Weeks, CEO at Corning and said, hey, I want to use this glass. Then all of sudden it becomes popular," said Shim.

Of course it would be remiss not to mention the Retina display on Apple's iPhone 4 and 4S, a major selling point for both devices. And that appears to be what Apple is trying to achieve with the next iPad, though it will not have the same pixel density of the iPhone's Retina display.

Apple isn't the only company with the clout to move hardware standards into the mainstream, though. Intel is capable of this and so is Samsung. The former, with technologies like Wi-Fi and now the ultrabook. The latter with display technologies like Super AMOLED.

But Apple's status as the most influential consumer-electronics product company in the world, gives it an unrivaled ability to establish a few de facto standards, and it appears that IGZO, Gorilla Glass and Thunderbolt technologies could be three of them to begin with.

So, will IGZO make it into the iPad 3? And if commercial production of IGZO is running late, will this push out the release date of the next iPad or will Apple turn to its tried-and-true suppliers LGD and Samsung for more traditional displays?

Those two suppliers are probably capable of making 2,048 by 1,536 displays in the large volumes that Apple requires. Which means 2,048 by 1,536 will likely become the next resolution standard if it lands on the iPad 3, regardless of whether IGZO makes the cut.

In other mobile news

Outgoing CRTC (Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission) Chairman Konrad von Finckenstein has enjoyed his years as the agency's top manager, but now he vows to make some big changes to the commission and the way it will do things in the near future.

Overall, his tenure covered a tumultuous five years in the industries he regulated-- an era of mega-mergers and exponential growth of broadcasting over the internet and wireless communications. And like any other agency or entity that is about to experience drastic changes, it still leaves a lot of questions that remain unsanswered.

Since the CRTC doesn't regulate anything on the web or in wireless communications, how will Canadian content be protected in the future? Does it need to be? How should the feds respond when telephone, cable and television companies fuse into one?

The time has come, von Finckenstein says, to face facts-- the old separation of telecom and broadcasting is obsolete.

He advocates a single act to cover both sectors and a single regulator for broadcasting, telecom and even wireless spectrum-- an area currently managed by Industry Canada, another agency ill-equipped that critics have long said needs some drastic changes in the new decade.

"Whether you talk, whether you send video, whether you send a an email, it's just bits and bytes that are being sent over the same wire," he said in an interview. "That has completely changed our traditional definition of broadcasting and telecom as we used to know it not so long ago.

"It's time to review this legislation, it's now more than twenty years old. We want a system that carries bits, carries them efficiently and gives Canadians as much access as possible and for at least the next twenty years going forward."

At age 66, the plain-speaking, career bureaucrat with the suffer-no-fools reputation is a leading voice within the Canadian government for embracing the global digital revolution.

The Conservatives promised a digital economy strategy in mid-2010 but have yet to produce a plan. There seems to be no sense of urgency. They have mused about changing foreign ownership rules for telecom firms since 2009, but have yet to move. And an auction of even more wireless spectrum is scheduled for this year, but the rules have yet to be revealed, one more time.

Industry Minister Christian Paradis says that a copyright bill was a key pillar of the digital strategy. Those changes have been discussed by Ottawa for the past 15 years, and yet there's nothing that came out of it during all that time.

And Von Finckenstein envisions something a lot broader. He points out that other countries, including Australia, France and the United Kingdom, have appointed ministers to oversee all things digital. Such a position does not exist in Canada and very little government discourse revolves around the issue.

He says the cabinet hasn't acted on his ideas yet, and shows no signs of change. "We haven't seen any movement on this front at all, but that's partly because of the political landscape of minority governments and partly because it's a very difficult issue and not easily tackled."

Von Finckenstein's time at the CRTC was punctuated by controversial decisions, tension with cabinet and the creation of several new initiatives. Although the Conservative government is firmly geared toward cutting regulations, the CRTC chairman introduced some new ones, albeit not all were that popular.

For example, last fall, he placed new restrictions on big media corporations that hold both distribution interests (cable or satellite) and broadcasting networks, ensuring they couldn't keep TV programming away from competitors.

He also forced cable and satellite companies to contribute to a fund to help support local television stations.

There were also a number of consumer-oriented initiatives-- a do-not-call list for people who dislike telemarketers, better 911 service for mobile phone users and a commissioner for telecom complaints.

And some of von Finckenstein's decisions were sent back to the drawing board by cabinet. The commission rejected wireless company Globalive's bid to launch a new cell service, deeming the company was not Canadian enough. Cabinet overturned that ruling later, however.

Even more notable was the CRTC decision to allow big internet service providers to impose usage-based limits on the smaller providers to whom they sell excess and wholesale bandwidth. Industry Minister Tony Clement was very public of his disdain for the decision, riding a public backlash against the CRTC.

Von Finckenstein now says candidly that he realized that the commission's decision needed to be revisited as he sat before a parliamentary committee trying to explain it.

"Whether I like the way the minister viewed this or not is totally irrelevant," he said. "You've got to give him credit. He was right. This was a bad decision and it needed to be reviewed and we did it."

As far as his successor goes, von Finckenstein believes he or she should come with a certain experience. "You certainly should understand governance, you should understand legal relationships and you should understand business, because, after all, this is a business, it's a business that has a huge social impact and that affects all Canadians," he said.

Von Finckenstein has some advice for the new Chairman-- keep your independent wits about you and don't get co-opted by big business. "You go out, consult and meet with as many stakeholders as are involved because, you live very much in a bubble here, so everything you look at is through the telecom or broadcasting or communications point of view," he said.

"You go to B.C., half the people there haven't even heard of the CRTC, that's very important to realize." As for his own future, Von Finckenstein says he's looking forward to some golf time and to spend more time with his grandchildren.

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Source: Ovum Market Research.

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