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Mar. 27, 2009

ABI Research just released a new survey that predicts a continued drop in mobile handset shipments for this year. ABI is also forecasting a best-case scenario of flat growth for most of next year.

ABI's report comes just after a recent Ad-Mob survey that revealed some smartphones have continued to gain significant market share globally since October 2008, rising from 25.9 percent to 33.2 percent of requests for last month.

Although forecasts from other wireless analysts and handset manufacturers have widely varied in the past year, the general consensus still seems to be settling around a drop in sales in the 8 percent to 10 percent range.

But that doesn’t mean much for overall market growth.

ABI’s practice director Kevin Burden says “I think people get confused. The smartphone isn’t pushing the volume of the overall market. It’s just that more phones within the mobile space are now fitting the definition of the smartphone.”

Two months ago, Nokia forecast a 10 percent decline in sales for this year. That’s down five points from its December 2008 forecast of a 5 percent decline.

Given the serious downturn in the global economy, Nokia has been quick to point out that its size and mobile-centric focus could mean opportunity to gain market share. Burden agrees. “In times like this, Nokia can certainly capitalize on the missteps of smaller companies.”

The ABI report did show at least some signs of light.

“Numerous handset vendors are replacing component inventories after reducing them to very low levels in recent months to keep them from overextending as the market dropped,” Burden states in the report.

There’s no doubt that 2010 will be a very challenging one. “I can’t think of a time when I’ve wanted summer to be over so quickly,” says Burden, echoing the sentiments of many who just want 2009 to be over before it even gets started.

For this year, ABI's report suggests that the Asia-Pacific region will suffer the most due to its large volume of shipments.

If some market stability does somehow manifests itself in the next quarter, it will arrive there a little later than in North America and Europe, resulting in a 2010 forecast that still shows a minimal decline in shipments, while other regions may enjoy a minimal positive growth.

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Source: IBM.